I want to believe it. Who doesn't? Is there anyone out there who wants to believe that this new plan (if we can call it new) won't work? That it will lead to more death? That it will fail to secure Baghdad? That it will not capture those who love violence? We all want to believe 21,500 more troops will help, but will it?
We already have 130,00 troops there, how will 21,500 more help? Some estimates have put the insurgency level as high as 200,000. Are we suppossed to believe that if we throw another 21,500 troops into the mix that will help? What stops the insurgency from moving into the country-side? And, even if we secure Baghdad, do we believe that the Kurds will bow to the Iraqi government? Do we believe anyone in the region will respect the American implanted rulers? We set up the shah of Iran and his people revolted and the resulting government hates us. We backed Sadam in the Iran-Iraq war and he was just hanged by his own people. At what point does it become obvious that we do not know what we are doing in this region?
The President's speech (1/10/07) touched a part of me that wants to believe the improbably could happen, but reality says we stepped into a bad situation and made it worse. Saddam created a modern society as VP of Iraq before becoming President. As president, Sadam was able to hold the Kurds, Sunnis, and Shiites all under his government. Did he do it well? No. But he did it, and it took him 30+ years to learn how to do it badly. Are we committed to 30 years? Is the government we set-up? Who is most committed to 30 years? The Americans? The Iraqi government? The insurgents? I bet you came up with the same answer I did.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
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